Kentucky COVID Fears: "STOP minimizing COVID. 1 in 50 are dying?"

There is a huge reason to be afraid of COVID-19 but before we get there, let’s talk through some of the more common fears, like the “you’re downplaying COVID” fear often used when people see the full relative risk data.  

What if I told the chances of winning the lottery were 3%?

That’s true if you evaluated the chances of winning out of context. You don’t really have a 3% chance of winning, you have a 3% chance if you’re one of the lucky 294,000,000 that get the first 5 numbers right.

For COVID in Kentucky, you don’t have a 2% chance of dying (the current Case Fatality Rate that is down from nearly 7% in May). You have a 2% chance of dying if you are one of the 0.9% of Kentuckians that have contracted COVID. That makes the real chance of surviving COVID in KY 99.98%. If it gets 10 times worse the real chance of surviving will be 99.83%.

The real data as of 8-24 is below. Being scared of the high death rate is a lie and an intentional choice of fear over truth. Context matters.

All data sourced through the State’s COVID website, the COVID Tracking Project and the CDC